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July 18, 2008

Latest Poll Shows Majority Opposed To Proposition 8

According to The Field Poll survey conducted in English and Spanish between July 8 and July 15th, 51% of likely California voters oppose a ban on gay marriage.

The Field Poll surveyed 672 Californians who are likely to vote in the November election. Only 42% support the ban.

According to The Field Poll itself;

"Democratic and Republican voter sentiments are poles apart on this issue. Sixty-three percent of
Democrats intend to vote No, while 68% of Republicans are ready to vote Yes. Non-partisans are
overwhelmingly on the No side – 66% to 27%.

There are also big differences in voting preferences by region. Voters living in California’s coastal
counties, which represents 69% of all likely voters, oppose Prop. 8 56% to 37%. Opinions are
almost reversed among Californians living in inland counties, where supporters outnumber
opponents 54% to 40%.

The strongest opposition to Prop. 8 is found in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area, where
voters oppose Prop. 8 by a two and one-half to one margin (67% to 26%). They are joined by
voters in Los Angeles County who are also on the No side, 51% to 41%.

By contrast, voters in the Central Valley and in other parts of Northern California outside of the Bay
Area are opposed on the order of five to four. In Southern California areas outside Los Angeles
County, preferences are more evenly split (50% No and 45% Yes).

Women voters are lining up on the No side of Prop. 8 to a greater extent than men – 54% No and
40% Yes among women vs. 49% No and 45% Yes among men.

By age, opposition to Prop. 8 is greatest among younger voters under age 30, as well as among
"baby boomers" in the 50 – 64 age bracket. Voters in other age groups are more evenly divided.
White non-Hispanics, African-Americans and Asians are lining up on the No side by five to four
margins. This contrasts with the voting preferences of Latinos, who are supporting Prop. 8 five to

There are also big differences by religion. Protestants favor Prop. 8 56% to 40%, while Catholics
are evenly divided. By contrast, voters affiliated with other religions or who have no religious
preference are opposing Prop. 8 by wide margins.

Evangelical Christians favor the amendment better than two to one, 66% to 31%. However, non-
evangelicals are on the No side 59% to 34%.

There is greater opposition to Prop. 8 among voters who personally know or work with gays or
lesbians. This group, which includes nearly three in four voters statewide, opposes Prop. 8 54% to
40%. On the other hand, those who have no personal familiarity with gays or lesbians favor the
amendment by a narrow margin."

Let's hope that margin not only holds but increases between now and the election. In the meantime, I'm also going to research any polls taken here in Arizona for our own discriminatory anti-gay marriage ballot proposition. I'll keep you posted on both.

To see the entire poll results, go to: The Field Poll